Crafting with mixing frags

Since 2 days i've been terribly unlucky with my craftings. I am trying to mix gls for cav or hi with 3 epics and 1 gl fragment per try.
While that worked pretty well for me in the past (chances are 41% to come out gl) this suddenly stopped.
I wouldnt post this under bugs if it hadnt been so incredibly unlucky. I had 8 consecutive tries to craft a gl item as described above. None of them came out gl. The ninth try finally succeeded. Today i started again and i am now at my 10th consecutive try to craft a gl item. Not one succeeded.
Let me calculate the odds for you, so that you understand my inclination to consider this as a bug.

The odds for 8 failed consecutive tries are: 8*0.59=1.47%
The odds for 10 failed consecutive tries are: 10*0.59=0.5%

Now take a wild guess what the odds might be for those streaks of misfortune to be only seperated by one successful craft.

Can you please check your logs for my Gashadokuro acc on olympus. Something seems way off.

Seems like you have just gotten really unlucky but doing the math like that isn't the right way to look at it. Especially since it's a new roll of chance every time.

0.000631 or 0,0631% (The odds of 0 (.000044 or .0044%) or 1 (.000587 or .0587%) of the 19 being a godlike and the rest not).

...I think.

Anyway, I hope you keep your super bad luck germs to yourself.

really unlucky was what i thought after the first 8 failed tries. Now the odds of that happening are just so slim, that it might very well be a bug.

Of course the odds are always 41% to come out gl. But that does not mean that my calculations are invalid. They still calculate the statistical odds for that very unfortunate series of failures to happen. And the odds are just so slim that im inclined to think it is a bug.

The whole crafting process is based on pure luck.
If there is an 1% chance to craft an "bad item", it can always and every try happen (statement from an dev).
 
You want to craft an gl item?
To be 100% sure, you have to use 100% gl frags.
Mixing could give you x1000 times the lower rarity.

Now i'm at 11 failed tries in a row.

9999 wrote:

The whole crafting process is based on pure luck.
If there is an 1% chance to craft an "bad item", it can always and every try happen (statement from an dev).

You want to craft an gl item?
To be 100% sure, you have to use 100% gl frags.
Mixing could give you x1000 times the lower rarity.

I could get into the math again, but I'd probably get it wrong somewhere or bore everyone...probably both.

That said, I think the point Claud is trying to make is that with enough repetitions the percentages should approach actual crafting odds.

While you COULD flip a coin such that it lands on heads 100 times in a row, a fair coin would have such low odds of occurring that it might not have occurred ever in human history. It is so unlikely to occur by pure random chance, that if you managed to do this...it is incredibly more likely that the coin is unfair.

I'm not saying that I think the crafting is in any way flawed, I'm simply saying that when something like this happens there is merit into questioning whether everything is working as it is intended.

Claudandus wrote:

Now i'm at 11 failed tries in a row.

...wow.

I want to see one of you flip a coin 11 times in a row and get tails each time. Then get heads once. Then get tails 8 more time in a row. That just doesn't happen to anyone who hasn't been cursed by the Gods...

If I'm not mistaken, just flipping a coin 11 times and getting tails each time would be a 1/2048 chance. 8 times a 1/256 chance. Which leaves about a 1/524288 chance you'd have 19 tails flipped out of 20...

(I know 50% like a coin isn't 41%, but it's really close. If this isn't a bug then... wow...)

I put my superstitions ahead of me, and yesterday I mixed craft around 5-6 GLs, 4 turned our GL.